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CTBTO’s Status, Verification Regime and Its Prospective of Ratification

The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO Preparatory Commission) is an international body established in 1996. This commission working to bring The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in to force. The CTBT bans the nuclear tests by everyone, everywhere: on the Earth’s surface, in the atmosphere, underwater and underground.
The CTBTO had office is in Austria Vienna and it is led by the Executive Secretary. Current Executive Secretary of CTBTO is Lassina Zerbo from Burkina Faso. The main objectives of CTBTO’s are to create awareness about treaty, make agree none participating and non-ratifying states on treaty through soft diplomacy, building and strengthening the verification regime so that it can keep check when treaty enter into force.  The CTBTO Preparatory Commission is an independent body and work in the relationship agreement with the United Nations. Their working collaboration revolves around the cooperation to facilitates the treaty implementation and strengthening of global verification regime. Total 183 states are signatories of the treaty and 166 nations had ratified it. But to bring treaty into force out of 44 countries with Nuclear facilities must sign and ratify the treaty. Out of 44 annexes 2 states, 36 had signed and ratified the treaty including three nuclear power countries, Russia, UK and France. Yet eight countries are left to sign the treaty including, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and USA. Among these eight, Pakistan, India and North Korea already ratified the treaty. Last ratifying states is Myanmar.
The treaty has well advanced and comprehensive verification regime to keep check that no nuclear explosion goes unnoticed. The verification regime based on three main components, the international Monitoring System (IMS), Onsite Inspection and International data center. The IMS has 294 certified stations worldwide, 12 are newly installed, six are under construction and 25 are planned. The IMS work through four technologies, Seismic, Hydro acoustic, Infrasound and radionuclide detection. The 50 primary and 120 auxiliary seismic stations monitor shockwaves in the Earth and they successfully detected all North Korean Nuclear tests in pervious 12 years. There are 11 Hydro acoustic stations to detect sounds waves in Oceans created by explosion, and 60 infrasound stations to detect low frequency sounds waves. While 80 are there to detect radioactive particle in atmosphere. Data from all these station goes to the International Data center (IDC) in CTBTO’s headquarters in Vienna in real time form. The IDC shared this data with member states in both raw and analyzed form. The last components of verification regime, the onsite inspection will be fully functional when treaty will be in force. However, the commission practice their onsite inspection capabilities through on-site inspection exercises time to time. Other then unclear exposition monitoring, the IDC data is very useful for early warning system of natural disasters like tsunami and underwater earth quakes. It is also useful to monitor effect of climate change on our planet by measuring few millimeter accuracy of sea level.
The CTBT has come a long way and achieved important successes: not only has it resulted in the establishment of an effective and highly respected International Monitoring System (IMS), but it has acquired near-universal support, creating a norm of a nuclear testing taboo adhered to by all States but one. However, 20 years after the CTBT was opened for signature, prospects for its entry into force are dim. Ratification by the eight remaining States identified in Annex 2 of the Treaty the United States, China, India, Pakistan, Egypt, Iran, Israel and North Korea is required for the CTBT to enter into force. The lack of action on the part of these remaining Annex 2 States is generating considerable frustration within the international community at large. Moreover, the bellicose statements by world leaders, the past six months have increased the international concerns about ban of nuclear weapons. The regional tensions, especially a wave of tension between European states and Russia on double spy agent fueling the fire. Therefore, there is need to cool down the regional tension through science diplomacy, building new financial, strategic or reputational interests between countries. In South Asia, international community should try to create a regional balance of conventional weapons and provide equal opportunities to India and Pakistan to get access to civil nuclear supplier group. While in east Asia an economic package for north Korea, like Iran can encourage States to pursue simultaneous or parallel ratification and signature to entry into force of the CTBT
By: Muhammad Qasim (PhD)
Muhammad Qasim is Member at CTBTO Youth and Young Leader at Pacific Forum